Carl Lavin On Washington And The World

Publication: Forbes

Carl Lavin
December 23, 2007

The Big Trend

Campaigns and conventions will make plenty of noise as official Washington hopes to mask a lack of real action. With any budget decisions for 2009 likely to be reshaped by a new administration and a new Congress, both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue will focus on rhetoric over results. Democratic committee chairs and would-be chairs will rake in campaign contributions, as the business world expects the party to solidify control of Congress. President Bush, pushing aside the distractions of war and encouraged by an upturn in poll ratings, will polish his role as statesman.

The Unconventional Wisdom

The global economy will give leading nations tools that work to isolate dangerous regimes. Even the striped-pants set and the Ph.D.’s who fill bookshelves with strategy papers often regard Iran, Myanmar, Sudan and other rogue states as operating beyond any influence of the U.S. (or the U.K.). Disciplined use of global financial tools is upsetting that conventional thinking. Watch the Financial Action Task Force, building on modest but real success with sanctions against Iran, as Rice-Paulson combine to make even more use of this obscure working group to pressure banks, corporations and nations to limit the financial options of threatening dictators.

The Misplaced Assumption

That permanent Washington co-opts any self-styled outsider and nothing can shake the fundamental power arrangements. That’s been a safe operating assumption for Beltway insiders. Now, citizen advocacy groups, armed with technology, are poised to be disruptive innovators. One of the first was opensecrets.org, a site from the Center for Responsive Politics that makes it easy for anyone to track political donations. It's been joined by even more entrepreneurial projects from the Sunlight Foundation and a Web-based group that calls itself the Porkbusters. A White House spokesman can chuckle and say, “Maybe we need a 12-step group to deal with earmarks.” The students, bloggers, lawyers and other advocates behind these sites and govtrack.us are making change happen.

The Watch List

U.S. Supreme Court -- Al Odah v. United States will decide if federal courts have oversight over the U.S. military’s system of detention and interrogation at Guantanamo Bay. The rest of the world will be watching with even more interest--and expectation--than many Americans (who face new economic worries and focus on their own pocketbook issues).

National electric grid -- It will be severely stressed by summer heat’s high demand and the growth of the server-based, innovation-driven knowledge economy.

Kevin Rudd -- Bush finds a new best friend on the summit circuit in Australia’s new prime minister. Rudd can help his own nation--and the U.S.--manage relations with Beijing, using his Mandarin fluency and Australia’s hold on the great raw resources China needs to fuel its economic growth.

A Bold Prediction

In July, as China completes preparations for the opening of the Beijing Olympics on propitious 08/08/08, the government releases imprisoned journalist Shi Tao, a government critic now serving a 10-year sentence after being found guilty of revealing state secrets. Advocacy groups and some US politicians have taken up his cause, especially since Yahoo! apologized for its role in revealing Shi’s identity to the Chinese authorities.

Carl Lavin is managing editor of Forbes.com.